Inflation Versus Price-Level Targeting

Inflation Versus Price-Level Targeting Synopsis

Lukas Heim evaluates the performance of a price-level targeting rule compared to that of a standard inflation targeting rule. The comparison is based on a medium-scale DSGE model which has been estimated based on state-of-the-art Bayesian methods. The model for the Swiss economy is an expanded version of the framework proposed by Gal¦ and Monacelli (2005) as well as Monacelli (2005).

It is enriched with habit formation in consumption, price indexation, labor market imperfections, and several additional structural disturbances. The results show that - exactly as expected - the volatility of inflation is quite significantly lower under the price-level targeting regime, whereas the volatility of the output gap is markedly higher conditional on either productivity or preference shocks. Therefore, the introduction of a price-level targeting regime would likely produce an increase in the volatility of real economic activity conditional on both supply-side and demand-side shocks.

Since inflation and output are targeted simultaneously, none of the two policies is strictly dominant.