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This book introduces mathematicians to the fascinating mathematical interplay between ideas from stochastics and information theory and practical issues in studying complex multiscale nonlinear systems. It emphasizes the serendipity between modern applied mathematics and applications where rigorous analysis, the development of qualitative and/or asymptotic models, and numerical modeling all interact to explain complex phenomena. After a brief introduction to the emerging issues in multiscale modeling, the book has three main chapters. The first chapter is an introduction to information theory with novel applications to statistical mechanics, predictability, and Jupiter's Red Spot for geophysical flows.The second chapter discusses new mathematical issues regarding fluctuation-dissipation theorems for complex nonlinear systems including information flow, various approximations, and illustrates applications to various mathematical models. The third chapter discusses stochastic modeling of complex nonlinear systems. After a general discussion, a new elementary model, motivated by issues in climate dynamics, is utilized to develop a self-contained example of stochastic mode reduction. Based on A. Majda's Aisenstadt lectures at the University of Montreal, the book is appropriate for both pure and applied mathematics graduate students, postdocs and faculty, as well as interested researchers in other scientific disciplines. No background in geophysical flows is required.About the authors: Andrew Majda is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and has received numerous honors and awards, including the National Academy of Science Prize in Applied Mathematics, the John von Neumann Prize of the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics, the Gibbs Prize of the American Mathematical Society, and the Medal of the College de France. In the past several years at the Courant Institute, Majda and a multi-disciplinary faculty have created the Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science to promote cross-disciplinary research with modern applied mathematics in climate modeling and prediction. R. V. Abramov is a young researcher; he received his PhD in 2002. M. J. Grote received his Ph.D. under Joseph B. Keller at Stanford University in 1995.
This book gives a research exposition of interdisciplinary topics at the cutting edge of the applied mathematics of climate change and long range weather forecasting through a hierarchy of models with contemporary applications to grand challenges such as intraseasonal weather prediction. The developments include recent physics constrained low-order models, new analog prediction models, and equation free methods to capture intermittency and low frequency variabilities in massive datasets through Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (NLSA) which combines delayed embeddings, causal constraints, and machine learning. Applications to grand challenges such as tropical intraseasonal variability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Monsoon as well as sea ice re-emergence in the Arctic on yearly time scales. A highlight is the exposition and pedagogical development of recent intermediate stochastic skeleton models to capture the main features of the MJO through PDE ideas, stochastics, and physical reasoning and compared with observational data. The mathematical theory of model error and the use of information theory combined with linear statistical response theory in a calibration stage are applied to improve long range forecasting and multi-scale data assimilation with concrete examples.
The general area of geophysical fluid mechanics is truly interdisciplinary. Now ideas from statistical physics are being applied in novel ways to inhomogeneous complex systems such as atmospheres and oceans. In this book, the basic ideas of geophysics, probability theory, information theory, nonlinear dynamics and equilibrium statistical mechanics are introduced and applied to large time-selective decay, the effect of large scale forcing, nonlinear stability, fluid flow on a sphere and Jupiter's Great Red Spot. The book is the first to adopt this approach and it contains many recent ideas and results. Its audience ranges from graduate students and researchers in both applied mathematics and the geophysical sciences. It illustrates the richness of the interplay of mathematical analysis, qualitative models and numerical simulations which combine in the emerging area of computational science.