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See below for a selection of the latest books from Economic forecasting category. Presented with a red border are the Economic forecasting books that have been lovingly read and reviewed by the experts at Lovereading. With expert reading recommendations made by people with a passion for books and some unique features Lovereading will help you find great Economic forecasting books and those from many more genres to read that will keep you inspired and entertained. And it's all free!
This book provides an updated, concise summary of forecasting air travel demand methodology. It looks at air travel demand forecasting research and attempts to outline the whole intellectual landscape of demand forecasting. It helps readers to understand the basic idea of TEI@I methodology used in forecasting air travel demand and how it is used in developing air travel demand forecasting methods. The book also discusses what to do when facing different forecasting problems making it a useful reference for business practitioners in the industry.
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
The European recovery is strengthening and broadening appreciably. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2017, up from 1.7 percent in 2016, before easing to 2.1 percent in 2018. These are large upward revisions-0.5 and 0.2 percentage point for 2017 and 2018, respectively-relative to the April World Economic Outlook. The European recovery is spilling over to the rest of the world, contributing significantly to global growth. In a few advanced and many emerging economies, unemployment rates have returned to precrisis levels. Most emerging market European economies are now seeing robust wage growth. In many parts of Europe, however, wage growth is sluggish despite falling unemployment.
Taking a longer view than most literature on economic development, Richard A. Easterlin stresses the enormous contrast between the collective experience of the last half century in both developed and developing countries and what has gone before. An economic historian and demographer, the author writes in the tradition of the new economic history, drawing on economic theory and quantitative evidence to interpret the historical experience of economic theory and population growth. He reaches beyond the usual disciplinary limits to draw, as appropriate, on sociology, political science, psychology, anthropology, and the history of science. The book will be of interest not only to social scientists but to all readers concerned with where we have been and where we are going. . . . Easterlin is both an economic historian and a demographer, and it is the combination of these two disciplines and the fine balance between theory and experience that make this well-written, refreshingly optimistic book excellent reading. -- Population and Development Review In this masterful synthesis, Richard Easterlin draws on the disciplines of economic history, demography, sociology, political science, psychology, and the history of science to present an integrated explation of the origins of modern economic growth and of the mortality revolution. . . . His book should be easily accessible to non-specialists and will give them a sense of why economic history can inform our understanding of the future. --Dora L. Costa, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, EH.Net and H-Net Growth Triumphant is, simply, a fascinating book. Easterlin has woven together a history of economic growth, economic development, human mortality and morbidity, the connections each has with the others, and the implications of this nexus of forces on the future. . . . This book deserves a wide audience. -- Choice In what must surely be the most fair-minded, well-balanced, and scrupulously reasoned and researched book on the sensational subjects implied in its title--the Industrial Revolution, the mortality and fertility revolutions, and the prospects for future happiness for the human race--Professor Easterlin has set in place the capstone of his research career. -- Journal of Economic History Richard A. Easterlin is Professor of Economics, University of Southern California.
The November 2013 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports the near-term economic outlook for the Middle East region has weakened. Difficult political transitions and increased regional uncertainties weigh on confidence in the oil-importing countries. Growth in these countries remains well below the levels necessary to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards. Meanwhile, in the oil-exporting countries, weak global demand and domestic supply disruptions have reduced oil production, notwithstanding recent upward pressure arising from increased geopolitical risks. Medium-term economic prospects are clouded by rising fiscal vulnerabilities, declining productivity, and fragmented labour markets. Although economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia continues to expand at a fast pace, risks are also on the rise, including a further slowdown in Russia and China and unaddressed structural impediments.
Electric Utility Resource Planning: Past, Present and Future covers the balance of renewable costs, energy storage, and flexible backstop mechanisms needed in electric utility resource planning. In addition, it covers the optimization of planning methodologies and market design. The book argues that net load, ramping and volatility concerns associated with renewables call into question the validity of almost a century of planning approaches. Finally, it suggests that accounting for flexibility helps optimize the efficiency of the entire fleet of assets, minimizing costs and CO2 generation simultaneously, concluding that a flexible, independent backstop mechanism is needed, regardless of renewables or storage. Case studies provide a mix of hypothetical what if scenarios and analyses of real-life utility portfolios drawn from international examples.
How do the best department stores retain their customers, and thrive? What do retail and showbiz have in common? Stores such as Galeries Lafayette, Harrods or De Bijenkorf appeal to one's imagination as impressive centres of luxury. Even in this digital age, these modern retailers still know how to surprise their customers. The Future of Department Stores explores the most important European department stores and the current retail trends. Conversations with international investors and top notch managers allow you to peek behind the scenes of this unique commercial sector. The authors explore the challenges they face, and conclude that innovation and service are the keys to success. This book explains how the best department stores stay relevant and evolve to meet the future.
After impressive growth of about 10% per annum for three decades, China's visible signs of economic slowdown since 2008 have been subject to much contention. What causes the deceleration? What should we expect in an era of China's 6% growth? This book answers these questions in three parts. Although it is widely accepted that China can hardly continue its high-speed growth model, estimations for its future growth potential differ greatly. The first part of this book predicts China's growth to 2050, which considers both cross-country historical experiences and China's own demographic structure and employment participation features. In the second part, the book offers a comprehensive estimation of China's national and provincial total factor productivity (TFP) over the period of 1978 to 2014 based on comparable data. It then analyzes the causes of China's economic slowdown from a productivity point of view. Finally, this book correspondingly outlines policy recommendations, including supply-side structural reform and macroeconomic policy frameworks, to effectively address the issue of decline in both labor and labor productivity growth. This book will attract scholars and students of economics and China's economic studies.